Every day the market goes up and down, and the cable media and financial newspapers attempt to explain these perturbations. Every time there is a sharp sell-off or uptick, they are trying to rationalize what happened, why it happened, what’s going to happen next, and then keep us all entertained in the process. But what does it all really mean?
Nothing, you could just as easy throw rubber duckies in a river, each with a different corporate name on it, and see which one of them goes down the river fastest. You’d do just as well as the best analysts over time with your stock picks, seriously folks, there’s a lot to be said for dumb luck and throwing darts at charts or corporate lettered symbols.
Still, you have to wonder about this daily barrage of promotion and nonsense, as if it really matters? Can you imagine if the Gambling Industry had 4 US Based Cable Networks following every table, every casino floor, or trying to explain how the winners and losers made or lost money – or why, and how they might fair in the future? Because as it stands Wall Street and the Chicago Commodities Exchange are really nothing more than giant gambling casinos, and those who play, yes, they have better odds than a casino, but it is all a game nevertheless.
More interesting is that we base our entire economy and the viability of our economic future on stock market, or commodity price indexes. We use this to set policy and we actually have politicians busy making speeches whenever they think the market might be going up sharply or down drastically. Calling for more regulation, less bureaucracy and vying for media brownie points. This is no more a reality than the created nonsense realities in Washington DC.
Political and economic analysts will tell us that the economy follows the stock market, and the best judge is watching the stock market today to know the future of the economy will follow in 6-months. But if the stock market is a manipulated, and gamed at every turn, and it’s true that the 6-month lead time is real, then it’s the tail-wagging-the-dog, and all the business cycles, and politics that follow are being led by a bunch of dogs gambling at a table.